Marcelo Barbosa Ferreira

I am a Ph.D. candidate in Economics at Princeton University, expected May 2027, and a Gold Medalist in the Brazilian Mathematical Olympiad. My work combines large datasets, causal inference, and mathematical modeling to understand how individuals and institutions respond to income and policy changes.

What distinguishes my research is that I do not stop at statistical estimates. I incorporate empirical evidence into economic models to quantify trade-offs and derive implications for policy and strategic decisions. I am interested in challenging quantitative roles in finance, economic consulting, and technology where rigorous analysis can inform real-world decisions.

Resume (PDF) Email: marcelof[at]princeton.edu

Labor supply responses to a Very Large Income Shock: Evidence from Daughters of Brazilian Military Officers

How does a large, permanent income shock affect employment? I link military pension records with Brazil’s longitudinal employer–employee data and use an event-study design to estimate labor-supply responses. Formal employment falls approximately 7%, and after seven years each $1 of pension income reduces labor earnings by $0.08. I then incorporate these estimates into a model that quantifies the program’s welfare trade-offs.

The Welfare Effects of Tenure Requirements for Unemployment Insurance

How should unemployment-insurance eligibility depend on job tenure? I combine a welfare model with quasi-experimental evidence from a 2015 Brazilian reform to estimate how eligibility requirements affect layoffs and unemployment duration. The estimated efficiency cost is $0.11 per dollar transferred.